Decision-making in R&d Projects, a Framework Based on Fuzzy Logic1

In R&D projects, managers face a high degree of uncertainty due to their lack of experience with innovative products. However, managers, usually within a group, have to decide under uncertainty, to make the projects advance. In this context, some delays result from indecision or invalidation of the made decisions. To analyze the causes of these delays, a framework that formalizes the collective decision-making process under uncertainty is proposed. This framework illustrates how the uncertain information is perceived and treated differently by various decision-makers and allows to predict the risk of invalidation of a decision by measuring the dissatisfaction of the agents with the decision. A fuzzy logic approach is used to represent and aggregate human perceptions and reasoning modes. A case study in the pharmaceutical industry is presented to explain the behaviors of different groups of decision-makers, according to their compositions.